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Article Archive

Could The Fed's Balance Sheet Be The Mother of All Bubbles?

Posted by InTheMoneyStocks.com Thursday, August 22, 2013, 10:22AM ET

Read 1717 times

Almost every major stock market advance in the past 100 years has led to some type of stock market bubble. The last great bubble was in 2007, this bubble formed primarily in the credit and housing sectors. At that time, people were flipping homes, borrowing from banks without showing documentation of income, and tapping the equity out of their house like an ATM giving out free money. What was the cause of this latest and greatest bubble? Greed was the real cause. However, the easy money policy by the Federal Reserve and almost every bank on the planet that was the root of the problem.

It is important to understand why the Federal Reserve implemented an easy money policy in the first place. Well, in 2000 there was another market bubble that burst in the technology sector. Do you remember in the late 1990's when every company in the world was adding a dot com to the end of their name to try and boost their share price? There where companies that made no money at all with stocks that soared to new heights. Does anyone remember the Globe.com, CMGI, and countless others that traded to explosive price levels? The Globe.com stock traded from $9.00 to $90.00 on the day of its IPO. That bubble lasted longer than most people expected, but it did end very ugly. In fact, the NASDAQ Composite is the only major stock average that has still not made new highs from its 2000 peak of $5132.52. Today, the NASDAQ Composite trades at a $3691.50.       

These days there are many unconventional methods being used by the Federal Reserve in order to try and stimulate the economy. In the past, the central bank would just lower interest rates and that would make money more available. Remember, the former head of the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate to simply 1.0 percent in 2001. This was certainly one of the catalysts for the great housing and credit bubble once interest rates started to rise. Today, the current Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke has moved interest rates to basically zero percent. He made this move to lower the fed funds rate in December 2008 and it is still there to this day. In September 2012, Chairman Bernanke also decided to purchase $85 billion a month worth of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. This is a lot of money printing or liquidity being thrown at the stock market, hence the effect has been new all-time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and most other major stock indexes. Is this move higher in stocks another bubble in the making? Well, as long as the central bank does not cut QE-3 or raise interest rates everything looks great for the stock market at this time.

Currently, the Federal Reserve has about $4 trillion on its balance sheet. This is money that the central bank has printed to buy these securities. Eventually, the central bank will need to unwind there balance sheet and that $4 trillion at the central bank will need to be put back in the system. Theoretically, the central bank just creates this money out of this air. Could the great unwind of $4 trillion cause dramatic inflation? Perhaps it will, or perhaps the central bank will simply never unwind it and just continue to print more money to support asset prices. Can the stock market reap what it hasn't sown, or could the Fed's balance sheet of $4 trillion and counting be the mother of all bubbles? That is the great question that most economists should be asking themselves.

The irony here is that very few people if any at the central bank actually predicted the 2000, and 2008 stock market bubbles. These powerful people at the central bank have MBA's, mathematicians, statisticians, PhD’s and other prominent title holders at their disposal. Maybe this time is different, but everything happens in threes from what we have seen in life. Could the third bubble actually be the Federal Reserve itself this time around? We shall see soon enough. For now, the market is presenting opportunities for the trader and investor to take advantage of. Read the charts and take advantage of it while it is here.     

Nicholas Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com




   Post by: 
Don't Force Your Will On The Market, Take What It Gives You

Posted by InTheMoneyStocks.com Thursday, August 22, 2013, 10:18AM ET

Read 1810 times

It was the legendary trader Jesse Livermore who said,  "there is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." In other words, Mr. Livermore was not picking sides or teams when it came to trading. Too often traders and investors have this bias about the stock market and fail to capitalize on the opportunities that the stock market gives us every trading day.

A couple of years ago I read an article about Micheal Burry. He was a hedge fund manager from 2000 – 2008. He made his fame and fortune by betting against sub-prime mortgages. What I found so interesting was that he said he rarely shorted stocks and most other equities, he usually bought stocks most of the time. But when he saw the opportunity to bet against sub-prime mortgages, he took the bet. You see, he took what the market was offering, he didn't force his will on the stock market. When the stock market told him that it was ready to break or fall he simply started to load up on the short side trades.

Something else I find traders and investors doing wrong is that they often look to get even with a stock after taking a loss in the equity. In other words, if they have lost money in a particular trade they try and get revenge on that stock. If there is any lesson to take from this article, it is to not take trading personally. The market is always right, until it isn’t. Remember, the CEO of a company does not know who is trading in their equity. Do not take stocks personal. Just trade every stock the in same manner by using charts and patterns.  

Another mistake that many traders make is that they fall in love with particular stocks. In 2012, many traders were in love with Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). The stock was being upgraded everyday by countless major firms. Individual traders and investors would talk about the next great iphone release like it was curing cancer. The truth is, at that time there was smart phone saturation taking place in the market and the stock was under slow institutional distribution. As you all know, Apple Inc stock topped out just above $700.00 a share and dropped by more than 200 points in four months - a call which we traded for profit. The current Apple chart looks more like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), and Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) from the 2000 top these days. In other words, the stock market knows that the company can no longer achieve the growth it once had. Every stock goes through this cycle, it is not just Apple Inc. The point here is to not fall in love with a stock or company, stocks are for trading not marrying.

The moral of the story is to not force your will on the market, just take what it gives you. Every trading day the stock market will give us opportunities. If the charts tell us the level looks good for a trade we take it. If the chart does not tell us that the level is solid then we leave it alone. Trading is all about buying major support and selling major resistance. The minor support/resistance levels should be left for the amateurs. This does not mean that we will win on every trade, but it does allow us to have the odds in favor and that is really all a trader can ask for.    

Nick Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com  




Post by: 
From The Mind Of A Pro Trader - Convince Yourself Not To Buy It

Posted by InTheMoneyStocks.com Wednesday, March 28, 2012, 11:18PM ET

Read 1695 times

Over the years I have found myself being gradually refined, on my way from being an amateur to a pro trader. As time passes and I trade amongst beginners, I find more and more differences that stand out. This is the normal progression showing itself in any trader over the course of their trading career. From amateur to pro, each of us will learn a vast amount of rules and lessons. In fact, as a trader you will never cease to refine your technique and learn new lessons. I wish to convey one of the biggest differences and rules I have learned. It is quite possibly the most notable difference I see when discussing a trade with those less seasoned than I.

Throughout the day, I search literally hundreds of charts to try and isolate the best/optimal patterns and setups for a profitable trade. When I glance at a chart my mind is racing through hundreds of pattern, price and time setups to see if one fits a possible trade. The amateur will isolate a chart and the first thing they are thinking about is the profit. This is the key difference with seasoned trader. When I look at a possible trade, my eye is scouting the chat for how much I could lose. I look at the pattern, moving averages, time of day along with many other possible issues. I am looking at my max loss before I even think about the profit. Once I have isolated my max loss and risk of the trade, then I move on to the profitable side to see if the risk reward fits. This is extremely important to do as a pro trader is concerned not what they will make at first, but what they will not lose. Think about it like a parent. A parents eye is scouting a park for possible things their child could hurt themselves on before they let their child go play. Often times an amateur trader is too caught up in the emotion of making money that they will forget to examine the downside risk and focus purely on the upside. This is disastrous.

When I find a trade that looks promising, I do my best to convince myself NOT to buy it. I make myself give 3 reasons NOT to buy this chart. If I cannot come up with any, I may take the position. This mentality is opposite of an amateur. I know this, I used to be one.

Gareth Soloway
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
The Leader In Market Technical Guidance

This article was first published - August 8th 2009








The Chart That Says It All

Posted by InTheMoneyStocks.com Friday, November 11, 2011, 04:37PM ET

Read 1147 times

This morning, all of the major stock indexes are coming under severe selling pressure. The volume on the decline is very heavy, signaling that the institutional money wants out of this market right now. Leading stocks such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) are all trading sharply lower to start the day. In other words, the baby is being thrown out with the bath water. The problems in the European Union is once again the catalyst for the stock market declines. Traders that do not want to follow the European news, which can change by the minute these days, can simply follow the U.S. Dollar Index.
Today, the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX Z1) are trading higher by $1.27 to $78.03 per contract. As many of you may know by now, when the U.S. Dollar pops the stock market drops. The U.S. Dollar Index is certainly popping higher this morning. The U.S. Dollar Index futures will have some short term intra-day resistance around the $78.29 level. When and if the U.S. Dollar Index pulls back that is when the major stock market indexes will likely see a bounce off of these morning lows. Should the U.S. Dollar Index continue to climb higher these stock market indexes will likely decline lower. The U.S. Dollar Index moves these markets, while the media will tell you the cause is the news out of Europe and elsewhere. Learn what moves the markets and make money, do not listen to the hype.

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Understanding And Profiting From The Stock Market Swings

Posted by InTheMoneyStocks.com Friday, November 11, 2011, 04:36PM ET

Read 1088 times

The wild stock market swings continue, all thanks to Europe. The markets opened sharply lower on the back of more Italian woes. Yields on the Italian 10 year broke 7%. This is what started the Greek debacle and will be the ultimate cause of every other PIIGS country downfall. Most retail investors do not understand the how the yields determine the collapse of a country. Simply put, when a country is so heavily in debt and must borrow, rising borrowing costs trigger the beginning of the end.

Oil is ripping higher today. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO) is trading at $37.63, +0.20 (+0.53%) . While this may not seem like a major move, the USO traded as low as $36.49 this morning before a major reversal. This reversal is coming on the back of continued concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions as well as an oil inventory report which was bullish. Looking at the chart from a technical standpoint, the USO hit the 200 moving average today. This should be resistance, short term.

The biggest losers today are the financial stocks. This makes sense due to the possibility that Italy will default or bond holders will at least take a 50% haircut like they did in Greece. The exposure banks have to Europe is somewhat unknown, shown by MF Global's panic bankruptcy. Continued worry will persist from Europe. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) are all sharply lower.

To get amazing swing trade alerts and proprietary analysis, take the seven day free trial to the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat. Join the pros as they profit on every market move, up or down. Step up and seize the day, building a future with constant profits.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com

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