Inthemoneystocks Blog

Trader Insight! Understanding The Markets and the Next Move! (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:VXX), (NYSE:GS)

To truly understand the markets, one must think the opposite of the average investor or trader. When it comes to the total volume in the market, more than 90% is generally from institutions. When it comes to the total number of market participants, 95% of them are the average investors or traders. This is a peculiar disparity but totally understandable. This is also how many of the institutions make their money. In other words, by moving the markets in ways pull money from the average investor or trader or going the opposite of what the masses believe.

There was a fantastic example of this in the markets on Tuesday, March 9th, 2010. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) was slowly inching higher all morning and early afternoon towards the master double top level from mid January. This exact price on the SPY was $115.14. The average investor and trader, all 95% or more of them were looking at that level as being major resistance and looking to sell their positions there and even possibly go short the market at that price.

As I have discussed earlier in the article, if everyone expects it to happen, it will not happen as institutions attempt to take money not give it to the smaller trader/investor. Sure enough, the SPY tagged $114.99 and reversed, selling hard as institutions dumped. This could be seen by as volume surged. Why was this significant? Because it did not allow the amateur trader or investor to sell their longs and take profits and did not let them short the market. Truly masterful! Every average trader expected the $115.14 to be tagged and because of that, it was destined to not hit.

Whether it hits tomorrow or in the next week, we will have to see. I have expressed my expert views to my premium members of the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat but one thing remains certain, if the markets do move up into $115.14, and all the amateurs short, you can be sure institutions will push the market higher to stop them out.

This is pure and simple market psychology or essentially big money controlling little money. Learn the game and never again be caught on the wrong side of the trade.

A few other significant notes on the market. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F (NYSE:VXX) which tracks the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures, saw a huge block trade of 3 million on March 8th, 2010 at approximately 3:30pm ET. This appeared to be a large buy. The VXX shot up into the close, jumping well off the lows. Someone big obviously betting the market was coming into a wild ride period. The VXX was higher today.

In addition, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) on Tuesday, March 9th, 2010 saw a huge block trade go off for 1.5 million shares on what appeared to be the sell side. Just a little while after this institutional monstrous order went through, the markets dropped sharply and Goldman Sachs was slammed to the negative side. Another key signal? Quite likely.

Where does that leave us in the coming days? What other interesting things does this tell us about the markets and stocks? Where is the place to put your money? Join the Research Center to find out!

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

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WILD DAY ON WALL STREET

The major market indexes have reversed earlier gains bringing the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to unchanged on the day. This reversal move lower was on heavy volume and could be signaling a further pullback.

Today's Market Movers

Gainers

EDAP +34.00%
MPG +17.13%
CIGX +10.52%
FRPT +13.69%
AIG +12.99%

Decliners

TEAR -29.02%
HTM -13.22%
HDY -15.57%
MLNK -10.26%
CPSL -8.81%

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U.S Steel Hits Key Level Triggering Chief Market Strategist To Short $61.52

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Crude Ends Lower

Crude futures for April delivery ended the session down 0.5% at $81.49 a barrel.

Government Owned Stocks Lead The Markets Higher

The government owned stocks are leading the markets higher today. Stocks such as Citigroup, AIG, FRE, and FNM have all climbed today on stronger volume.

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Gold Closes Lower

Gold futures ended the session down for a second day in a row. Gold for April delivery was down $1.70 at $1,121.30 an ounce.

Apple Keeps Market Up With Its Solid Gains...Can It Hold?

Apple Computer continues to show impressive strength today. The second time in 3 trading days it has had significant gains. Can it continue to hold the market up?

Goldman Sachs Grp. (NYSE:GS) Has Gotten Very Weak After Block Order Goes Through

Note GS has fallen well off the highs of the day. Also, note the block order of about 1.5 million shares that went through. The $172.00 resistance level has held up so far. The markets are still near the highs of the day as the dollar has fallen, giving commodities and commodity stocks a jump.

Treasury Sells $40 Billion In 3 Year Notes

The Treasury Department sold $40 billion in 3-year notes at a yield of 1.437%.

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Copper Stocks Are Under Performing Since February 5th (NYSE:FCX), (NYSE:SCCO), (NYSE:IWM)

Since the February 5th pivot, the stock market has rallied higher. The S&P 500 is now approaching its January 2010 high at 1150.00. This recent rally has been lead by the small capitalization stocks in the Russell 2000 index and also the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite. These two indexes have made new highs for 2010.

The laggard in the market has really been last years leaders such as copper, gold, and silver. While these stocks have bounced from the February 5th correction low, they have not come close to reaching the January highs. Leaders in the copper stocks such as Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX), and Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:SCCO) are higher, however, they are not leading the markets as they did back in January.

The legendary trader Jesse Livermore used to say that the markets could be followed by watching copper. If copper lead the markets, then the rally was strong. If copper lags the markets than something was wrong. At this time copper stocks are holding up well, however, they are not leading this rally since February 5th, 2010.

Could this be signaling trouble for the major stock indexes in the near future? It is certainly possible. Therefore, copper stocks should be watched closely at all times.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Gold Pulls Back Into Key Support....But Danger Looms. (NYSE:GLD), (NYSE:AUY), (NYSE:NEM)

Spot gold pulled back again today as the dollar hovered higher. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) has now fallen into a key support at $109.00. Not only is this a necktie between the 50 moving average and the 20 moving average, but if you connect the recent daily lows (as seen below), there is a key trend line support. While this support looks amazing in many respects, be very cautious. A move below that support and the GLD could and most likely will see a tumble to the recent lows of $102.00.

Gold stocks like Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY) continue to hover just off support as well. This stock looks to have good support around $10.00. However, should it fail to hold, a sharp down move would be expected. While AUY has been weak of late, Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM) has been a powerhouse. This stock has soared from the range of $43.00 all the way to a recent high of over $52.00. In recent days it has pulled back to the $51.00 area. Keep a close eye on NEM as it does still look a little near term extended. Should the GLD break that key level, this could have a significant fall to it.

Please note that everything comes back to that key level on the GLD. Should the GLD hold the master $109.00 level, gold stocks should continue to do well in the coming weeks. However, should the GLD break, watch out below not only on gold, but on many of these miners. The dollar continues to show decent strength today. Gold moves the opposite way of the dollar. In addition, gold tends to move higher if panic sets in on the markets. I will continue to update you on gold.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Cisco Announces New Routing System

Cisco Systems (CSCO) announced they have a new routing system that it says is geared "to serve as the foundation of the next generation Internet." The company's CRS-3 Carrier Routing System is billed as having "more than 12 times the traffic capacity of the nearest competing system."

Transports Are Holding Up So Far

The IYT which is iShares Dow Jones Transportation ETF is trading higher on the day. Airline stocks seem to be the strong componant of the average. There will be intraday resistance at the 77.20 level.

Employers Hold Off On Hiring

According to Manpower Inc. most employers are still cautious when it comes to hiring. About 73% of employers expect no change in their hiring plans from March to June this year.

Today's Market Movers

Gainers

EDAP +57.43%
FEED +13.93%
CERS +15.68%
FRPT +13.37%
ARRS +9.53%

Decliners

HTM -15.70%
ZIGO -14.52%
TEAR -12.20%
MVIS -10.93%
THO -6.58%

U.S. Dollar Drop Gives Stock Market A Pop

As stated in the earlier post the U.S. Dollar index usually retreats and declines when it is higher at the start of trading. As the dollar declines the stock market catches a bid and rises. Should the dollar bounce or catch a bid it would be prudent to expect the stock market to pullback. Please understand the inverse stock market relationship is most effective during NYSE trading hours. It is also reactionary and not proportional with dollar moves.

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WFC Is Holding The 28.50 Level. Watch This Level If Does Not Hold.

WFC is under a little pressure today with most other financial stocks. Goldman Sachs is the exception today trading in positive territory. If WFC falls below the 28.50 intraday support level then 28.18 would be the next support area intraday.

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JPM Is Pulling Back This Morning. Watch These levels.

JPM is pulling back this morning as financial stock seem to be under some pressure. JPM will have support at the 42.15 and 42.00 level.

The U.S. Dollar Starts The Morning Higher. Will it hold?

The U.S. Dollar is trading higher by 0.28 cents to 80.71. The stronger dollar is putting some pressure on the stock indexes this morning. However, should the dollar pullback from it's morning high it is likley to see the market trade higher.

Gold Continues To Decline

Gold futures continued to decline early in the session. Gold for April delivery was down $13 to $1,111 an ounce.

Chevron To Cut 2,000 Jobs

Chevron Corp. (CVX) said it plans to cut 2,000 jobs this year as part of its plan to cut costs in its refining business.

Crude Falls Below $81

Crude oil futures are starting the day on the downside. Crude for April delivery is down $1.33 to $80.54 a barrel.

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H&R Block Reports Profit

H&R Block (HRB) reported a third quarter profit of $50.6 million, or 15 cents a share compared to a profit of $47.4 million or 14 cents a year ago. Revenue fell to $934.9 million compared to $993.4 million a year ago.

Is Anyone Trading Today? (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:DIA)

The media is bullish as the talking heads are all looking for the market to trade higher throughout 2010. The Federal Reserve Bank is bullish and says the economy is recovering, meanwhile, they continue to keep the fed funds rate at zero percent. The President's administration and those inside of it keep saying the recession is over as they also continue to sandbag the monthly job number.

So I guess everything is OK. The major stock market indexes have recovered most of January's decline and everyone is bullish. The one problem that I see from where I'm sitting is the lack of participation. Today the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading just 91.5 million shares and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) is trading less than 5 million shares as of 3:15 pm EST. Where are the markets participants today? Really when you stop and think about it, where have they been in the past year?

Every now and then the markets seem to have a surge in volume. However, most of the heavy volume days come when the stock market declines. There are a few exceptions when the markets have surged higher on strong volume trading days. However, the buy side volume days, can be counted on one hand. If everything is so great on planet stock market where are the participants and where is the volume?

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks

Today's Market Movers

Gainers

ZANE +64.77%
ZOOM +24.43%
IFLG +26.11%
NCT +20.48%
CPSL +15.11%

Decliners

COHN -20.88%
CBRX -11.40%
ICO -10.36%
LXRX -8.99%
PARD -7.91%

Crude Inches Higher

Crude oil futures started the week on the upside. Crdue for April delivery was up 37 cents at $81.87 a barrel.

Market Technical Analysis - CSCO Announcement And GS Keeping Markets Flat...Consolidation?

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Gold Ends Session Lower

Gold futures started the week on the downside. Gold for April delivery ended the session down $11.20 at $1,124 an ounce.

Shipping Stocks Continue To Show Strength

Stocks like DRYS continue to show intra day strength. These stocks have been beaten down for a long time and with the recent optimism in the economy and the global atmosphere starting to clear, they continue to inch higher today. Other shipping stocks are EXM, GNK, EGLE, FREE, OCNF, SHIP to name a few.

Money Pours Into Hedge Funds In January

$7.1 billion of new money poured into hedge funds in January. Hedge funds now manage about $1.5 triilion in assets up 24 percent from the lows of 2009.

Mixed Signals (NYSE:IWM), (NYSE:UGA)

Since February 5, 2010 the stock market has advanced sharply, erasing most of the recent January decline. One important index that has emerged as a leader is the Russell 2000 index. This index tracks most of the small capitalization companies that are traded by the public. When this index leads the market, this is usually viewed by traders and investors as a bullish indication. Essentially, investors are betting that small companies will do well and the economy is strong enough to support them. The Russell 2000 index can be tracked or traded by using the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSE:IWM).

While many traders and investors have jumped on board that theory, many others see existing problems. Currently the European Union continues to try and sort out possible bailouts for Greece and many other nations have severe national debt problems. There is also the case that can be made for huge skyrocketing deficits in the United States to grow on a daily basis into the trillions of dollars. Government central banks continue to print money and flood the market place with liquidity. This cannot be healthy in the long run. As proof, look at what happened between 2002 – 2007 when money was free and people were reckless.

Can it be more simple than this? Perhaps we can tell when this stock market is going to pullback or reverse. Can it be as simple as gasoline prices? Every time gasoline gets too high at the pump the stock market seems to pullback or have a small correction. This phenomenon can be viewed by watching the United States Gasoline Fund LP (NYSE:UGA). If one looks at a chart they can simply see that every time that the United States Gas Fund trades above the 38.00 level the stock market pulls back. This phenomenon occurred in late October, and early January. Here we are again as the UGA approaches these high levels.

Remember high gasoline serves as a tax on the consumer. In July 2008 it was high oil and high gasoline prices that broke the back of the stock market. It is still highly unlikely that the U.S. consumer can handle high gasoline prices with an unemployment rate near 10 percent and a foreclosure crisis that is still in full force.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategists
InTheMoneyStocks

Goldman Sachs Continues To Keep The Market Flat To Higher

Resistance is now showing itself at a level of $171 - $172. Volume is super light on the overall market. Probably the lighest of the year so far. With a dead market, it is very unlikely the market will sell off significantly. Look for flat consolidation today.

Rising U.S. Dollar Keeps The Markets In Check

Often when the dollar rises the market usually pullback. This is generally due to the fact that most commodities and inflationary stocks trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar. Should the dollar fade or sell off it is likely that the stock indexes will rally higher. It is also important to remember that the rising dollar does not have as strong of a negative effect on stocks when the stock market trading volume is light.

Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) Breaks Through Key Gap Fill Resistance

Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) jumped higher today on analysts upgrades. The stock has been stuck in a major range of late, unable to break through key resistance. That may be over today, finally.

The stock is up $3.70 (5.25%) today. The key was the massive resistance the stock was seeing at $71.50. This resistance level is known as gap window. The stock has hit this key level many times in the past few months but never had a day when it closed above it. The gap window stretches all the way back to the key break down off of earnings back on September 25th, 2009.

With the stock trading over $73.00 today, it looks very likely it will close above the master level of $71.50. If that happens, Research In Motion may see a continued uptrend towards gap fill. Research In Motion will report earnings later this month.

Crude Slides Down

Crude oil futures are sliding after trading as high as $82.47 a barrel this morning. Crude for April delivery is now trading down 20 cents at $81.30 a barrel.

Moody's Cuts Metlife

Moody's Investors Service has cut MetLife's (MET) rating outlook to negative from stable. Moody's said it lowered MetLife's outlook to reflect pressure on MetLife's financial flexibility.

Coal Plays On Fire Triggering My Love For National Coal Corp. (NASDAQ:NCOC), (NYSE:PCX), (AMEX:PUDA)

Commodity stocks have been ripping of late. After the Jobs Report on Friday, the U.S Economy seems to be on the path to a solid recovery or so it may seem to most. Positive comments have emerged on many sectors from steel to coal. With analysts seeing a recovery not only in the United States but around the world, commodity prices have soared. Oil is now over $80 per barrel and other energy sources are not far behind.

Talk on coal has been extremely positive and stocks like Puda Coal, Inc (AMEX:PUDA), Patriot Coal Corporation (NYSE:PCX) and James River Coal Company (NASDAQ:JRCC) have not disappointed. These stocks have seen a meteoric rise. Just in the last three weeks, PUDA has jumped over 100%. Larger players like Patriot Coal have also ripped higher to the tune of 30% or more.

Over the weekend I was looking through these charts which you can view below and I came across National Coal Corp. (NASDAQ:NCOC). This coal stock has been crushed and seen none of the recent momentum in the sector. With the momentum pushing so hard and the gains in other coal stocks so high, it is hard to believe National Coal Corp. will not see some of that love. While any stock trading below $1.00 carries a ton of risk, I think it has some potential at these levels in the near term. I picked up some myself today at current levels and will see how it plays out.

Disclosure: Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway is long National Coal Corp at the time this article was written.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

RealTick graphics used with permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. ©1986-2010 Townsend Analytics, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd

RealTick graphics used with permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. ©1986-2010 Townsend Analytics, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd

RealTick graphics used with permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. ©1986-2010 Townsend Analytics, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd

Today's Market Movers

Gainers

ZANE +33.16%
ZOOM +24.43%
XRTX +17.47%
NVMI +14.04%
CPSL +11.58%

Decliners

UTA -9.95%
PARD -7.91%
ICO -7.82%
WNC -5.73%
DRWI -6.02%

Gold Trading Down

Gold futures are starting the week on the downside. Gold for April delivery is down $11.70 at $1,124.50 an ounce.

Gas Prices Keep Rising At The Pump

According to the national Lundberg Survey of fuel prices the average price of regular gasoline rose 9.58 cents over the last two weeks. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is now $2.73.

UNG Is Nearing The $8.00 Level.

The natural gas ETF continues to remain under pressure even as most commodities are holding steady . UNG will have intraday support at the 8.00 level should it decline there.

Big Blue Is Flat In Early Trade. Watch These Important Levels.

IBM is flat on the day so far. This is a leading stock and often watched by traders as a market barometer. IBM will have good intraday support at the 126.83 level. This could be a possible intraday short term bounce area.

Moody's Eyeing Portuguese Banks For Downgrades

Moody's warned that the debt and deposit ratings of Portuguese banks are at risk not just from a potential downgrade of the sovereign rating, but also from "an assessment of the government's decreasing ability and, potentially, willingness to support the country's banking system."

PCX Is Pulling Back Today. Watch These Support Levels.

PCX is a leading coal stock that is pulling back this morning. PCX has minor support at the 21.00 level and better intraday support at the 20.35 level.

GLD IS Steady As The Dollar Dips

The GLD which is the gold ETF is holding steady this morning. There will be intraday support for GLD at 110.78. Should this level fail to hold the 110.22 level would be the next intraday support area. Both areas could see small bounces.

FDIC Urges Pensions to Invest in Failed Banks

According to Bloomberg U.S. regulators are encouraging public pension funds to inject capital directly into the banking system by buying failed lenders. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) is trying to get pension funds that want to buy stakes or assets of distressed bank holding companies.

The U.S. Dollar Is Lower To Start The Morning

The U.S. Dollar index is lower to start the morning. This move down in the dollar is helping to lidt the stock index futures ahead of the opening bell. Remember a weak dollar usually benefits the stock market especially commodities.

McDonald's Same Store Sales Rise

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) reported that same store sales rose 4.8% in February. Analysts were expecting same store sales to rise 2.1%.

Crude Trading Above $82

Crude oil futures are starting the week on the upside. Crude for April delivery is up 67 cents to $82.17 a barrel.

Four More U.S. Banks Fail In 2010

These are the 2010 bank failures listed below:

Source: FDIC.gov

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Technical Analysis Market Discussions For The Second Week In March. Key Levels, Direction, Setups

H-P Revises First Quarter Numbers

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) said it revised its first-quarter net income to $2.25 billion, or 93 cents a share, from $2.32 billion, or 96 cents a share, due to expenses related to a lawsuit involving Electronic Data Systems.

Consumer Credit On The Rise

The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. consumers increased their debt in January for the first time in a year. Consumer debt rose $4.96 billion in January to a total of $2.46 trillion. Analysts were expecting consumer credit to decline by $6 billion.

Stocks That Are Not Participating In Today's Rally (Nasdaq:RIMM), (Nasdaq:QCOM), (NASDAQ:MSFT)

The market is surging higher today after the government released a better than expected job report. Most traders and investors anticipated the government would release good numbers after telling the public earlier in the week to expect a bad number due to the February snow storms. With today's sharp move higher there are a few stocks that are not participating and should be watched next week after today's euphoria is over with.

The first stock that is not reacting well today is Research In Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM). The stock is down just 0.40 cents today trading at 69.58. Nonetheless, it is negative in a very strong tape. If the market starts to show weakness next week this stock should be watched closely.

Qualcomm Inc (Nasdaq:QCOM) is another stock that is slightly negative today trading lower by .50 to 38.75. Qualcomm Inc has had its fair share of problems lately as it is still lower by over 10 points from its January high. Should the market start to pull back next week this stock could test its recent lows at 35.50 and possibly 32.00 if that support level fails to hold.

Microsoft Corp is another stock that is slightly negative today. The stock is lower by just 0.06 cents to 28.56. Again, this is another leading stock that is down in a bullish market. Microsoft Corp is also forming a slightly bearish chart pattern on the daily chart which could trade down to the 27.50 level.

Whenever the market gets euphoric as it is today it is important to look at the laggards. Then when the market starts to get weak or pulls back these names may lead the decline.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

Today's Market Movers

Gainers

ITMN +57.43%
GMO +43.46%
WNC +25.98%
RCNI +23.74%
PUDA +21.32%

Decliners

BOOM +14.22%
SATC +13.70%
NBIX +11.92%
VHC +7.99%
SUTR +8.31%

RESEARCH CENTER UPDATE ALERT !! (NEW HOT CHARTS & ALERTS)

The Dollar Rollover Adds Fuel To The Rally

The U.S. Dollar index was higher at the start of the day keeping a lid on today's marke rally. Since 10:00 am the dollar began it's typical intraday decline. As the dollar sells off the stock market catches a large bid higher. Usually gold will rally sharply when the dollar declines since it is inflationary and also an inverse play on the dollar, however, today gold is not participating.

Oil Closes Higher

Crude oil futures closed the week on an upnote. Crude for April delivery was up $1.29 to $81.50 a barrel.

Market Technical Analysis - Markets Initially Jump Higher On Jobs Report Then Stall. 52 Week Highs?

Gold Ends Session Up

Gold futures ended the session on the upside. Gold for April delivery was up $2.10 at $1,135.20 an ounce.

Gas Prices Rise At The Pump

According to auto club AAA retail gasoline prices rose 1.4 cents overnight to a national average of $2.72 per gallon. Many Analysts are expecting prices to hit $3 by the spring.

GM To Reinstate 600 Dealerships

The Wall Street Journal reported that General Motors Co. said it will reinstate about 600 dealerships that it had originally planned to drop from its network.

Market Stalls Around Intra Day Resistance Of $113.90.

If that level breaks, markets should see $114.10 - $114.15.

RESEARCH CENTER UPDATE ALERT !! (NEW HOT CHARTS & ALERTS)

WMT Is Flat In An Up Tape

WMT is showing poor relative strength today as the market is sharply higher and WMT is flat on the day. WMT does have intraday support at the 53.90 level. This could be a dhort term intraday bounce area. Should that level fail to hold the 53.70 level is the next intraday support level.

Goldman Sachs Into Resistance At $167.25